Playing GM

As a follow up to the mid-draft hysteria, I’m going to take a page out of Scott Wright’s book (or his webpage at draftcountdown.com) where he drafts one player in every round plus takes a flier on a RFA.  I’ll follow his methodology in choosing someone who went at the 16th spot or lower in that given round.  While he limits himself to one player at any position and doesn’t draft for any scheme, I will confess my preference for the 3-4 and apologise early lest I violate in taking multiple players at the same position.

1.  Melvin Ingram, defensive end/outside linebacker, South Carolina

Selected: 18th overall by San Diego

While I was tempted to consider Chandler Jones or Nick Perry, Ingram is the only pass rusher left on the board who I would take over Courtney Upshaw.  Ingram is quite the versatile athlete as he can line up almost anywhere along the line.  Honestly he reminds me of Adalius Thomas and I expect he’ll get a chance to succeed in a rebuilding defense in S.D.

 

Also, the player I would n’t touch in round 1: Brandon Weeden.  I’ll admit that if he isn’t 28 he’d warrant first round consideration, but quarterbacks get overrated on potential (and then teams counter-psych themselves out in letting players like Aaron Rodgers drop late [fair point, I thought Rodgers would be another Tedford disciple turned horrible quarterback – success as a quarterback is a mix of mentality, mental agility, and the physical abilities necessary to lead a team, but it’s also very tied to the situation.  Regardless of situation I’m unimpressed by Weeden overall]).

2.  Rueben Randle, wide receiver, LSU

Selected: 31st overall by N.Y. Giants

I know that the receiver position is deep this year and I have the chance to select a natural left tackle in Mike Adams (although he’s off my board until the 3rd) or a solid contributor, I expect, in Isaiah Pead.  Devon Still and Vinny Curry are intriguing – I really like Curry in an Eagles’ defense focused completely on stopping the pass, but I’m going to grab a tall, smooth receiver which is a quality fitting into any offensive scheme.  Randle landed in a good situation where he doesn’t have to contribute right away but will plug in with Hakeem Nicks and Victor Cruz as soon as he earns his stripes.

 

I didn’t have Derek Wolfe going in this round at all, but he sounds like a better pro player than college.  Still, I would rather have Devon Still or Jerel Worthy first.

3.  Brandon Hardin, safety, Oregon State

Selected: 79th by Chicago

Dwight Bentley was a consideration, but there are other corners to be had later.  Jake Bequette is someone I’m intrigued by, but didn’t study up enough on like I did Hardin.  Bergstrom at tackle and Brandon Thompson were thoughts, but really I’m down to Hardin and Bequette.  Without his injuries, Hardin is likely going a full round earlier and I expect him to find his way onto the field.

 

It’s cliche to criticize a team for drafting a punter in the 3rd round…but I’m going to anyway.  Almost as surprising to me is seeing T.J. Graham came off the board before Mohamed Sanu – I would’ve had the NC State product in the 5th or 6th, but then you can never really tell with receivers.

4.  James-Michael Johnson, inside linebacker, Nevada

Selected: 120th by Cleveland

Finding a four year starter who plays this well in the box makes this decision for me.  Joe Looney at guard and Kyle Wilber were thoughts.  I liked Ron Brooks’ upside quite a bit and hoped he would be around in the 5th as was fellow Bills’ selection Nigel Bradham.  Miles Burris to Oakland also might turn out.

5.  Terrell Manning, outside linebacker, NC State

Selected: 163rd by Green Bay

Unsurprising for those who know me, I grab for another linebacker.  If not for the filled defensive end position, I would’ve grabbed Jonathan Massaquoi.  Ryan Miller should contribute at guard or tackle for the Browns and I like the DeQuan Menzie pick earlier in the round, but I think the Pack nabbed a good one here.

6.  Brandon Washington, offensive guard, Miami

Selected: 200th by Philadelphia

Andy Reid has a pretty good eye for linemen and I’m ready to select one (while every other team is reaching for a kicker).  Washington needs to clean up his technique and improve in using his hands, but he has the frame and right situation in which to work through such issues.  Billy Winn was also a thought here as was James Hanna.

7.  Andrew Datko, offensive tackle, FSU

Selected: 241st by Green Bay

It would’ve been Cam Johnson if I hadn’t already filled the end/outside backer spots but Datko’s chances at a full recovery are well worth a late round flier.  The Pats likely landed the steal of the draft with Alfonzo Dennard’s late slip-up, but I’d rather take a chance on finding a plug and play tackle who will get the job done.

Rookie Free Agent: Chris Polk, runningback, Washington

Garth Gerhart, brother of Toby, is intriguing at center; nose tackle Nicholas Jean-Baptiste from Baylor is another in that category.  Look out for Matt Merletti, safety from UNC, Micah Pellerin and Chris Galippo to find the field for the Colts in the midst of their rebuilding program.  Tydreke Powell is quite talented, Luke Nix could sneak into a starting o-line spot, Marquis Maze might just make something as a RS and I’ve heard good things about Adrian Robinson.  I’ll also be watching Garrett Celek, Brent’s little brother, and Leonard Johnson.

All that said, I would’ve considered Polk late in the second round and certainly by the fourth.  As a camp invitee, there’s no reason not to give the guy a shot when he’s managed to produce consistently over his career in the Pac 10/12.  Chase Minnifield also should’ve been drafted in my book, but finding a contributing back is my selection here.

 

Ravens’ Season Outlook

It’s way too early. Rookie mini-camps and other OTAs (Organized Team Activities if you’re unfamiliar) will take place in the coming weeks leading up to training camp when the stories become much bigger leading into the season. One moment during the pre-season we’ll think we catch a glimpse of the team that should’ve sealed a Super Bowl berth and the next we’ll see disconcerting evidence that this is the year it all crumbles, the year Ray and Reed realize they should’ve hung them up (or that we become convinced of this).

Honestly, this team reminds me in some ways of the year Suggs was introduced in Purple and Black. While I don’t expect his likely successor Courtney Upshaw (in most packages) to reach or surpass the Ravens rookie record for sacks set by Suggs in that year or even to provide the intimidating presence Suggs was this past year as he earned Defensive MVP honors, Upshaw provides a physical presence as his strength puts him into position to make plays against both the run and the pass. I don’t believe Upshaw is the next coming of Suggs, but he reminds me of ‘Sizzle’s physicality. I’m not worried about him getting pushed up field or out of the play.

So, can he step in for Suggs? I don’t think so if we expect the same level of production, but I still expect to see him setting up others to clean up the play. He’ll get the chance to learn the game the only way it can really be learned – at full speed under the tutelage of Ray.
This also provides another chance for Kindle where it seemed he was about to run out. As a rotational piece with Kruger, Kindle might yet get a chance to shine. More importantly, two edge rushers/setters get a chance to hone their skills with valuable playing time against Cincy, Philly, the Pats and Cowboys all leading to the most physical part of their schedule: Houston, Oakland, Pittsburgh, San Diego, the Giants and Bengals. If they want a shot at the playoffs, this team has to pull out some tough wins.

Next on the docket has to be the offensive line concerns. I was glad to see Osemele added and I’m growing to like the selection of Bruce Gradkowski’s younger brother. We’ll have to wait and see if McKinnie comes into camp with the will to dominate or if he’s content just to have a jersey.

For that matter, Oher is going to need to improve on his discipline if he’s going to keep Jah Reid out of the conversation at right tackle. In the short term, Osemele, Reid, and Gradkowski may be vying for one spot at guard but in the near future Reid might well battle with Oher for the right to man the left side, and the Ravens brass might toy with Osemele at right unless Oher can solidify his position.
So…calling it way too early, I’m going to say McKinnie starts the year at LT only to lose his job to Reid before mid-season, Reid starts at LG before moving to LT when he is replaced by Kelechi, Birk continues as the stalwart help-lineman (meaning…he’s good at double teams but not much one on one) for as long as his back holds up, Yanda continues to be the best linemen for the Ravens and Oher keeps a spot so the team can evaluate his future long term.

The defense and offense are just good enough to keep the Ravens in the conversation, and the Steelers stumble enough to show who the better team is, but the better team doesn’t always make the playoffs. Cincy wins the division [if I’m answering right now], the Ravens and Steelers show a little too much age but plenty of talent and Brandon Weeden is rudely welcomed to the AFC North (as is Richardson).

More Information than you need about the 2012 NFL Draft: Quarterbacks’ Edition

Numbers marked with an (*) are non-NFL Combine numbers. Statistics released by NFL.com have been given precedence in all matters, although there seem to be significant discrepancies still. This is an attempt to sort out a few of the numbers.

Quarterbacks

NAME, School/University: Height & Weight – Arm, Hand Measure;

(Significant Notes).

Forty yard dash [Ten yard split], Three cone drill, Twenty yard shuttle, Sixty yard shuttle; Vertical jump, Broad jump; Bench press at 225 lbs.

Upper Tier

ANDREW LUCK, Stanford (Architectural Design): 6’4 234 – 32.6″, 10″;

• (three year starter, Maxwell and Walter Camp Award winner, All American, PAC-10/PAC-12 Offensive Player of the Year in both 2010 & 2011; PAC-10/PAC-12 All Academic 2009-2011, Academic All American, Valedictorian of Stanford’s graduating class; Father, Oliver Luck, played for the Oilers as a backup to Warren Moon and is now WVU’s Athletic Director)
• 4.67, 6.80, 4.28..; 36″, 124″; 45/48 passes completed at Pro-Day

With the exception of Jake Locker, I strongly disliked last year’s quarterback class. Cam Newton went on to have an exceptional year (for any quarterback, not for a rookie) while Jake Locker, Blaine Gabbert, and Christian Ponder had mixed results.  I didn’t anticipate Newton’s talents translating into wins like they did.  I’d be very uncomfortable handing the reigns over to any of the latter three.  The point: this is a special year (more like the year Eli Manning, Rivers, and Roethlisberger all entered the league than any in my short-lived memory).

This year has an absurd wealth with two players (Luck and RG3) who should be picked first in nearly any draft.  Both are extremely intelligent and unusually athletic, but most importantly, they can each be the face of a franchise.

In particular, Andrew is the son of a former NFL quarterback, was mentored by Jim Harbaugh, and played in a pro-style system with consistently impressive results.

ROBERT GRIFFIN [III], Baylor (Political Science): 6’2.4″ 223 – 32.3″, 9.5″;

• (three year starter, Heismann, All American, Davey O’Brien award winner, Manning Award, Johnny Unitas Award, All Big 12, Big 12 Offensive Player of the Year, Academic All Big 12 2010-11; world class hurdler, was born in Japan)
• 4.41…; 39″, 120″; 76/82 passes completed at Pro-Day

You don’t need me to tell you that Griffin is a special player.  He seems to be a lot of things that Mike Vick wasn’t at this time in his career (a more disciplined in the pocket passer, perhaps slightly less elusive although still possessing turf scorching speed, better mechanics (sometimes too compact), and eloquent [please don’t read that as a stab at Vick, but know that teams are selling an image of the player and at this point, RG-III shows no signs of future negative publicity for Dan Snyder’s team].)  Bottom line: he’s a quarterback who happens to be a fantastic athlete, not the reverse.

While Griffin is raw taking snaps from under center, in Shanahan’s offense he will be asked to bootleg and play action enough that he will find himself working in space more often than not.  Scott Wright also draws the comparisons with Michael Vick – more polished as a passer but less explosive.  For my money, RG III can learn to work through his progressions and has enough athleticism to smooth some of the bumps out until that maturity comes.

RYAN TANNEHILL, Texas A&M (Biology): 6’4 [6’3.9*] 221 – 32.6″, 9″;

• (four year starter, played 30 games at wide receiver [team’s leading receiver in 2008 & 2009] before winning the starting job [despite being recruited as a quarterback], 65% completions set Aggie record, 3 time Academic All Big 12, attending medical school)
• 4.62*…;..; 65/68 passes completed at Pro-Day

I agree with Scott Wright; Tannehill is intriguing but isn’t ready to carry a team just yet.  He’s best suited to sitting behind a veteran for a year or two.  In all likelihood, he’ll go in the middle of the first round.

BROCK OSWEILER, Arizona State (Sociology and Political Science):6’7 (6’6.9″*) 242 – 33.9″, 9.9″;

• (originally committed to Gonzaga on a basketball scholarship)
• 4.97*…;..; 65/72 passes completed at Pro-Day

In all likelihood, we will see four quarterbacks come off the board in the first round, with Tannehill and Osweiler completing excellent workouts.  Teams like the Dolphins, Browns, and Seahawks may jockey to get in position to take these two, so their draft positions may rise even more.

Osweiler is not an unathletic big quarterback, as his basketball abilities show, and he is very accurate.  For my money, if I had to pick from both last year’s and this year’s crop, I’d take Luck, Griffin, and Newton (with not much space separating them) followed by Tannehill, Locker, Osweiler, and Gabbert [Ponder isn’t a first rounder to me] in order.

Middle Tier

BRANDON WEEDEN, Oklahoma State (Business Management): 6’4 (6’3.*) 221 – 31.8″, 9.6″;

• (All Big 12 in 2010 [no luck edging out Griffin this year]; former minor league baseball player (second round pick of the Yankees) – born in 1983)
• 4.95*, 7.40*, 4.49*..; 32″*, 102″*;

NICK FOLES, Arizona (Communication): 6’5 243 – 34.3″, 10.6″;

• (honorable mention Academic All Pac 10 2009-10, transfer from Michigan State)
• 5.14 (5.04*), 7.27*, 4.60*..; 30.5″ (33.5″*), 112″ (108″*);

Foles struggled at his Pro Day, but he may yet catch on if a team takes a late round flier on him.

RYAN LINDLEY, San Diego State (Sociel ScienceTeaching):6’4 (6’3*) 229 – 32.6″, 10″;

• 4.90, 7.52, 4.45..; 29.5″, 108″; 67/73 passes completed at Pro-Day

RUSSELL WILSON, Wisconsin (Communication): 5’10.6″ 204 – 31″, 10.3″;

• (won Griese-Breese Big Ten Quarterback of the Year, All Big Ten, transfer from NC State after entering Badger’s graduate program, Academic All ACC 2009, All ACC 2008, ACC Academic Honor Roll 2007-08; 72% completions for Badgers with 33 touchdowns; won state title as junior; shortstop in baseball; father, Harrison Wilson III, played football and baseball at Dartmouth, brother, Harrison IV, played for Richmond)
• 4.55, 6.97, 4.09..; 34″, 118″;

In the middle tier I like Wilson and Cousins the best, partly because I feel Big Ten quarterbacks can translate their success to the NFL more easily, with a nod at Nick Foles.  Weeden’s age does get in his way and Lindley is (to me) an unknown product.

BRYON COLEMAN [ELWYN Jr.] (B.J.), Tennessee-Chattanooga(Communication), 6’3 233 – 31.6″, 10.4″;

• (SEC Freshman Academic Honor Roll at Tennessee, Dean’s List 2009 at UT-Chattanooga, Academic All Southern Conference 2010, transferred from Tennessee after butting heads with Lane Kiffin [surprising])
• .., 7.07, 4.38..;..109″;

KIRK COUSINS, Michigan State (Kinesiology): 6’3 (6’2.5*) 214 – 31.6″, 9.9″;

• (MSU’s career record holder in passing touchdowns, yards, efficiency, total offense and 200 yard games, three time captain, winningest quarterback, threw a touchdown in 16 consecutive games, 54% completions at bowl games, NFF National Scholar Athlete, 3.68 GPA, three time Academic All Big Ten)
• 4.93, 7.05, 4.50..; 28.5″, 109″;

Lower Tier

CHANDLER HARNISH, Northern Illinois (Business Management): 6’2 219 – 32.4″, 9.3″;

• (three time Academic All MAC, holds 30 NIU passing, rushing, and total offense records, MAC Offensive Player of the Year, 3.65 GPA, pursuing Masters in business)
• 4.76, 6.78, 4.15..; 32.5″, 112″;

DARRON THOMAS, Oregon (Pre Business Administration):6’3 220 – 32.9″, 9.5″;

• (third player in Pac-12 history with two seasons of 30+ touchdown passes)
• 4.80, 7.17, 4.28..; 36″, 121″;

Seriously came out a year too early.

AARON CORP, Richmond: 6’4 (6’3.4*) 215 – 32″, 9.4″;

• (Parade All American, lost backup spot to Mitch Mustain and Matt Barkley subsequently took over when Corp’s knee was injured)
• 4.72, 7.03, 4.30..; 31.5″, 106″;

CASEY (CASE) KEENUM, Houston (Kinesiology-Sports Administration with a minor in Business Administration): 6’1 208 – 30.9″, 9.1″;

• (2008-09 C-USA Most Valuable Player & All C-USA, Five time C-USA Commissioner’s Honor Roll, 2008 C-USA All Academic, active FCA, pursuing Masters in Physical Education)
• 4.82…; 32.5″, 103″;

PATRICK WITT, Yale (History): 6’4 225 – 31.4″, 9″;

• (transferred from Nebraska, owns most of Yale’s passing records, Rhodes Scholar Finalist but candidacy was intentionally misreported, sexual misconduct allegation, Big 12 Commissioner’s Honor Roll, Texas High School Student-Athlete of the Year finalist with a 4.72 GPA; brother, Jeff, also played quarterback at Harvard)
• .., 7.14, 4.37..; 31.5″; 101″;

JACORY HARRIS, Miami: 6’3 203 – 32.1″, 9.4″;

• (led Northwestern to a 30-0 record, state championship, and national championship, Parade All American, EA Sports National Player of the Year; never managed to really hold the reigns at Miami and tended to match a positive play with a negative one)
• 4.72, 7.10, 4.40..; 37″, 113″;

KELLEN MOORE, Boise State (Communication): 6’0 197 – 30.3″, 9.5″;

• (holds all time record for wins as a starting quarterback in FBS with a 50-3 record, working on a Masters in Kinesiology with the independent study project: ‘what highly successful people do to become successful’)
• 4.94, 7.41, 4.56..; 27″, 99″;

Moore looks like the quintessential ‘good in college but ill suited to the pros’ athlete.  I suppose I’m one more doubter he has to prove wrong; best of luck, Kellen, and better luck with such an unspecific thesis (remember, unspecific means inapplicable).

AUSTIN DAVIS, Southern Mississippi (Business Administration): 6’2 219 – 31.8″, 10.4″;

• (C-USA All Academic team 2008-10, C-USA Academic Medal winner in 2007, all state in baseball, cousin, Jason Smith, plays baseball for Diamondbacks while brother, Bo, played on College World Series team)
• 4.76, 6.73, 4.11..; 31″, 109″;

JORDAN JEFFERSON, LSU (Sports Administration): 6’4 (6’4.4*) 223 – 33″, 10.3″;

• 4.65, 6.81, 4.06..; 36.5″, 116″; 14 reps

STEPHEN GARCIA, South Carolina (Sociology):

• (dismissed multiple times, in and out of the lineup under Spurrier [although that’s somewhat normative], honor roll in high school, completed degree in Sociology, brothers both played at Harvard)

JOHN BRANTLEY, Florida: 6’2.8″* 218*

• (Gatorade National Player of the Year, broke the state record for touchdown passes in a high school career [in Florida])
• 4.84* [4.82*]..4.70*..; 28″*, 96″*;

DOMINIQUE DAVIS, East Carolina (Communications):

• (C-USA Newcomer of the Year, began career at Boston College; brother, Desmond Clark, plays for the Bears, competed in a JuCo matchup against Cam Newton which was decided by a punt return)

CHESTER STEWART, Temple (Criminal Justice):