Not Just Another Mock Draft 2012: III

Why you ask?  Because Arabic numerals are overrated (Arabic speakers use Hindi numerals anyway).

Some hours amounting to less than three days remain between whatever we call now and the approaching event that is the 2012 NFL Draft.  Having reviewed more mock drafts (particularly Brian Baldinger’s, Mike Mayock’s and Greg Cosell’s, all of NFL.com, and the findings of Scott Wright of nfldraftcountdown.com), mulled over my own choosings, and set the Pandora station to ‘Crouching Tiger, Hidden Dragon’, I ‘m ready to make a beginning to the last set of predictions which shall be made to look occasionally silly on Thursday night.

I.  COLTS – Andrew Luck, quarterback, Stanford

Greg Cosell, whose film analyses I greatly admire, grades RG 3’s throwing skills as better translating to shredding NFL defenses.  My own feeling, having watched a mere handful of games in which either featured, is that while Luck is an extremely Pro ready prospect, he has few true intangibles which make his play unstoppable.  He was n’t asked to win games with the deep throw (in fact, when Chris Owusu was unable to see the field the only down field threat for the Cardinal was Fleener).  This does n’t mean he can’t lead a two minute offense (or one minute in today’s NFL), or that he is n’t likely to be effective in the red zone.  These should be strengths for Luck given his intelligence and the intangibles he does bring, but RG 3’s placement, velocity, and pocket presence are better suited at this stage to allowing the receivers a chance to attack.

Luck’s arm strength may improve and both players are intelligent in the classroom and on the field, but at the moment, RG 3’s game is likely to fit better in the first 3 years.  The only way that Luck can become the next Peyton Manning is if he outworks him (because there’s no Marshall Faulk/Edgerrin James ready for him).

II.  REDSKINS – Robert Griffin III, quarterback, Baylor

Now, the concern for me with RG 3 is that his game so resembles Mike Vick’s that I wonder about durability.  Griffin achieved success despite the lack of NFL ready linemen in the amount Luck benefited from, and Luck is also built more thickly.  Here’s hoping Griffin learns a lesson Vick still has n’t learned – know when to slide and the sideline is your friend.  Best of luck to both, Luck goes first but RG 3 will have the better career if healthy and if he continues to make correct reads in the face of NFC East pass rushers.

III.  VIKINGS – Morris Claiborne, cornerback, LSU

Cosell agrees that the Vikings will take a corner so as to compete in a division with Matt Stafford, Aaron Rodgers, and Jay Cutler…but he has Stephon Gilmore going at this slot.  He considers Gilmore the more physical corner, but I ‘m still going with Mo here.

IV.  BROWNS – Trent Richardson, runningback, Alabama

In my two previous mocks I managed to evade this selection and I ‘m tempted to slot Gilmore here.  If you ‘ll recall in the first, I had Claiborne teaming with Joe Haden to make for a formidable young pair of corners in a division with Mike Wallace and Antonio Brown.  Drafting Kalil to play right tackle is poor draft value when so many other needs are present.  Fletcher Cox is a consideration, but I finally succumb to convention here.  I ‘m really expecting Richardson to have a Jamal Lewis like career: elite some years but thoroughly worn out by year five or six with too many injuries to be productive.

V.  BUCCANEERS – Stephon Gilmore, cornerback, South Carolina

Gilmore’s physicality should play well in the press man scheme where Aqib Talib may be unavailable and Ronde Barber may finally be moving to the safety position.  Kalil is a very real possibility, as is a defensive lineman or any receiver the Bucs like, but they won’t have another shot at the corner they need.  You have to be able to defend against Drew Brees, Cam Newton, and Matt Ryan.

VI.  RAMS – Fletcher Cox, defensive tackle, Mississippi State

Two quarterbacks followed by four SEC players, my pick again converges with Cosell here (actually it’s only been Richardson and Cox so far, but we have corners coming off the board early).  San Fran and Seattle both run the ball up the middle with authority and this is the counter move.  While Kalil should be a serious consideration in the interest of keeping Sam Bradford the face of the franchise, Jeff Fisher is not tied to that legacy and Kalil is not strong enough in the run game to warrant the selection.  If Richardson falls to this spot, I might still have Fisher taking a defensive lineman as he so often did.  Again, receivers can be had in the second round, so the selection most fitting is a versatile interior lineman who can move along to target the weak points of defenses.

VII.  JAGUARS – Michael Floyd, wide receiver, Notre Dame

I ‘ve managed to keep this pick in tact to this point, and stick with that selection.  Gilmore is gone and Janoris Jenkins’ past keeps his natural coverage abilities out of the top 10.  This might be a key trade target.  But then, once you ‘ve decided to draft Gabbert and hand Garrard his walking papers, you nearly have to make a contribution to the offense early.  There ‘s no Jack Del Rio here to choose a Tyson Alualu and Floyd is more explosive than Blackmon.

VIII.  DOLPHINS – Ryan Tannehill, quarterback, Texas A&M

If Miami does n’t take him, Kansas City is the next expected destination.

IX.  PANTHERS – Justin Blackmon, wide receiver, Oklahoma State

They could select a pass rusher, or trade back, but Blackmon teams with Steve Smith as that physical presence Muhsin Muhammad used to provide.  The Eagles and Cowboys could target this pick if Fletcher Cox is still available, but he is n’t in this scenario.  Kalil is a real option at this stage and may be the subject of serious trade talks.

X.  PATRIOTS via trade with Buffalo – Mark Barron, safety, Alabama

In my last draft I had Barron at this spot, with considerations for Kuechly.  Belichick sends a first and second rounder this year, and a second next year to fill a position which has been lean for the past decade with a Saban disciple capable of covering man to man.  The Bills could make the same pick in hopes of bottling up the Pats’ young tight ends and giving Tannehill nightmares, but they need more help across the board.

XI.  CHIEFS – Luke Kuechly, inside linebacker, Boston College

A better fit for the 3-4 (drafting a weakside backer in the top 15 for a 4-3 team would be unusual), Kuechly reacts well to what is in front of him.  One more convergence with Cosell, but I had this pick in my last mock and I stick with it here.

XII.  SEAHAWKS – Quinton Coples, defensive end, UNC

Very athletic boom or bust player – sounds like many a ‘Hawks first round pick.

XIII.  CARDINALS – Melvin Ingram, defensive end/tackle and linebacker, South Carolina

I had Gilmore at this pick last time.  I won’t slot in Janoris or Dre Kirpatrick here.  The offensive line could really use Kalil (and Cosell finally has him off the board here) or even DeCastro at guard, but the defense needs more help and ‘Zona is n’t settled on their quarterback situation.  Kendall Wright, Rueben Randle, and Alshon Jeffery all could team with Larry Fitzgerald, but I ‘m taking Melvin Ingram off the board here.

XIV.  COWBOYS – Matt Kalil, offensive tackle, USC

Unable to land Barron or Ingram, the Cowboys will likely pick Michael Brockers.  Instead, Tyron Smith is reunited with his old teammate to form an improved line for Dallas.

XV.  EAGLES – Chandler Jones, defensive end, Syracuse

While I ‘ve been hearing that Michael Brockers is the pick for Dallas or the ‘Iggles, he displays little pass rush ability.  I had Mercilus going at this spot previously, but the birds need someone to rush over the guard next to Babin or Trent Cole.  A player I covet for the Ravens, at least I won’t have to see him in Black and Gold.

XVI.  JETS – David DeCastro, offensive guard, Stanford

This is too great of a need to pass on considering how awful the Jets interior line was without Mangold early in the year.  If they want Tebow to be effective and the interior rush to stay away from the Sanchize, they ‘d better upgrade the offensive line before building that defense in the Ravens’ image Rex so desires.

XVII.  BENGALS – Kendall Wright, wide receiver, Baylor

I’m keeping this one from before, Dalton needs another weapon downfield.  Dre Kirpatrick or Janoris Jenkins garners some interest, as does adding a guard but with two picks, Cincinnati can afford to wait.

XVIII.  CHARGERS – Michael Brockers, defensive tackle, LSU

A very athletic player, Brockers is one piece in making the Chargers unit elite again.  I agree that he’s raw (and that the Chargers could benefit from adding Cordy Glenn here) but a once scary front seven has deteriorated drastically.  Courtney Upshaw could be a better choice, or Whitney Mercilus, but I ‘m trying to get into the mind of A.J. Smith and Norv Turner…and then back away as swiftly as possible.

XIX.  BEARS – Cordy Glenn, offensive tackle/offensive guard, Georgia

A receiver can be found later.  Unless they want to pick Cutler’s successor or add Janoris Jenkins, the Bears need to address their line.

XX.  TITANS – Dre Kirkpatrick, cornerback, Alabama

By this point, there may have been upwards of three trades (not counting the actual trade the Rams made with Washington).  I ‘ve only predicted one.  The scrambles for Fletcher Cox, Kalil, Gilmore, and Tannehill could materialize into several available defensive linemen along with falling wide receivers.  All that to say, if teams stay put like in this scenario the secondary needs to be addressed.  Finnegan’s successor will have to deal with the potential Houston powerhouse and the growth of Luck and whoever takes over for Gabbert.

XXI.  BENGALS – Doug Martin, runningback, Boise State

Previously Lamar Miller was the selection, but he better fits an offense that would match Clinton Portis’ skill set.  Martin will be able to play the physical type of game necessary to survive in the AFC North.

XXII.  BROWNS – Nick Perry, defensive end, USC

I really like Perry and the Browns need someone to pair with Jabaal Sheard.

XXIII.  LIONS – Janoris Jenkins, cornerback, North Alabama/Florida

Passing on a pure cover man is n’t an option in that division.

XXIV.  STEELERS – Kevin Zeitler, offensive guard, Wisconsin

Before addressing the shrinking defensive depth and loss of James Farrior, the Steelers need to be able to reform their interior line.  Then they can address needs at inside backer, nose tackle, depth at 3-4 end, secondary help, another receiving tight end, a back to toss in the rotation, etc.  But please, don’t take my advice.  Please take Courtney Upshaw (who will fit excellently, but at a position which you don’t need to address yet when other needs are significantly more pressing).

XXV.  BRONCOS – Coby Fleener, tight end, Stanford

These last two converge again with Cosell.  A lot of people are pairing the Dallas Clark like Fleener with Manning.  The defense could use some other pieces, especially with Dawkins retiring, but a #2 option behind Demaryius Thomas needs to emerge.  Fleener is worthless as a blocker to this point, but can stretch the field.

XXVI.  TEXANS – Riley Reiff, offensive tackle, Iowa

I previously saw a reach for Sanu here (which would’ve changed to Givens or Randle now that he’s fallen), but the Texans need to replace Eric Winston to keep the Arian Foster/Ben Tate monster going.

XXVII. BILLS from trade with New England – Dontari Poe, defensive tackle, Memphis

I believe Poe has fallen down team boards after tape review (or maybe its only the pundits who had him in the first round post-combine), but Buffalo is still likely to throw a knuckle ball.  Rueben Randle would be a nice selection here, or perhaps Jerel Worthy.  In all likelihood a good player, I ‘m not buying the Haloti Ngata comparisons until I see that sort of production in games (of course, I ‘d love to see the Ravens get him in the second round but he won’t be available by our pick).

XXVIII.  PACKERS – Whitney Mercilus, defensive end, Illinois

The speed rusher fell quite a long way, but something needs to force teams to pay attention to the side opposite Clay Matthews Jr.  And no, a trade for Casey Matthews won’t suffice.

XXIX.  RAVENS – Courtney Upshaw, outside linebacker, Alabama

Dont’a Hightower is available…and a likely target of other 3-4 teams in the next round.  Upshaw provides a strong edge rush and stifles the running game, a necessity after the departure of Jarret Johnson.  McClellin is a consideration, as is Peter Konz.  With defensive needs, its tough to see the team trying to find a replacement for the offensive line here, especially at center or guard.  Rueben Randle is intriguing, but I ‘d like to see Upshaw at this point.

XXX.  FORTY-NINERS – Shea McClellin, defensive end/outside linebacker, Boise State

The Niners get a good prospect here to continue improving that defense.  Wide receiver is also an option.

XXXI.  PATRIOTS – Peter Konz, offensive center/guard, Wisconsin

They really need the help this time.  Needs for a pass rusher have to be put off until the next round as McClellin and Upshaw are off the board.

XXXII.  GIANTS – Mike Adams, offensive tackle, Ohio State

Runningback is an option, as is linebacker or a fifth corner, but there are n’t many good options left along the offensive line and Adams might develop into a consistent prospect.  Might.

 

Cheers.

Contra-post to ‘Is Big Ben the best QB drafted in the last 10 years?’

Of course, my answer is no, so here’s my list of corrections to Marc Sessler’s article on NFL.com:

<http://www.nfl.com/news/story/09000d5d82848a6c/article/is-big-ben-the-best-qb-drafted-in-the-last-10-years?module=HP11_content_stream&gt;

First, concerning methodology, Sessler limits himself to quarterbacks drafted in the first round in the last ten years.  That should clear up some confusion and points of conflict.  Of course, I ‘ve published my opinion here, so feel free to counter with your own opinion and some explanation of why.  Cheers.

(Note, all analyses are as per the moment.)

To be especially clear, Marc Sessler’s question is: “You’re an NFL general manager.  Who do you want leading your team?”

 

1.  Aaron Rodgers, #24 in 2005 by Green Bay. 

Seriously, I understand Big Ben has played in more Super Bowls, but his style of play is starting to take the toll on his body I expected from early on.  

Who do I want leading my team?  I can’t be unbiased here, Ben has displayed some horrific decision-making in recent years off the field and his style of play is shortening his career.

 

Rodgers on the other hand, despite some concussion issues, is able to lead an offense despite a shaky offensive line with no semblance of a consistent running game.  That he could keep a team with a bottom 30 defense in contention is impressive.  The Giants game showed clearly how much the Pack relies on Rodgers’ super human output.

2.  Eli Manning, #1 in 2004 by San Diego.

For an Eli hater to have to make this choice shows how good he is.  His career had a slow start, but two Super Bowls coming from the NFC East and twice not only drawing but beating Tom Brady is very impressive.  If I have to pay a guy to lead my franchise, Eli is my #2 of those available here.

3.  Ben Roethlisberger, #11 in 2004 by Pittsburgh.

Drafting retroactively, I have to give him credit here.  Dominating the Baltimore rivalry until recently has been impressive, frustrating, but impressive.  While I have little respect for Ben as a human being, I hope that changes for his sake not mine, I ‘d give him a chance to lead my franchise.  I just don’t feel great about it.

4.  Cam Newton, #1 in 2011 by Carolina.

This is entirely based off last year’s performance.  He’s already lifted that team farther than expected and showed that he has to be accounted for both as a passer and a runner.  Big Ben at #11 or Cam at #1.  Ben has the rings, so he gets the nod.

5.  Carson Palmer, #1 in 2003 by Cincinnati.

This is based on the pre-injury Carson.  I ‘m still ticked at what von Oehlhoffen was able to get away with in that game.  Palmer was clearly being targeted.  Anyway, for years Carson produced where many of these other quarterbacks might not have been able to.  

6.  Matthew Stafford, #1 in 2009 by Detroit.

If he could ever put together a truly healthy season…

7.  Jay Cutler, #11 in 2006 by Denver.

He’s really vulnerable to the ‘guy who quits on his team’ accusation and I ‘ve never liked him personally, but I ‘d still give him a chance before I handed the keys over to Philip Rivers.

8.  Philip Rivers, #4 in 2004 by the Giants.

Eli was right to avoid the Chargers’ franchise.  I don’t have the slightest clue why A.J. Smith still has a job.  Rivers had an awful year last year and in his prime was never able to bring it home despite a weak division.  He’s benefited from several years with big targets, but doesn’t win in the playoffs.  Give me Drew Brees any day over Rivers. 

Clearly Sessler’s #4 does n’t sit any better with me than does Ben’s #1 overall selection. 

9.  Joe Flacco, #18 in 2008 by Baltimore.

Has been to the playoffs every year since being drafted and has managed to do everything but get to the big dance.  Sure, he threw the game-winning touchdown pass to Lee Evans but what I walked away from this past year’s playoffs with was awe that Flacco could demonstrably outplay Brady despite a superhuman performance by Vince Wilfork.

10.  Sam Bradford, #1 in 2010 by St. Louis.

I’m rather unimpressed by my other options at this point, so I’ll accept the adequate performance of Bradford. 

11.  Matt Ryan, #3 in 2008 by Atlanta.

Way overrated at #6, ‘Matty Ice’ (whose playoff performances have been dreadful…he’s sort of the anti-Mark Sanchez) benefits from the fact that I again don’t like my options.  Then again, I ‘m not the type to draft the quarterback in my top-5 unless your last name is Manning (or Luck).

12.  Alex Smith, #1 in 2005 by San Francisco.

Here’s hoping that Smith can keep the momentum from last season. 

13.  Jason Campbell, #25 in 2005 by Washington.

He picked the wrong year to go undefeated in the SEC, then suffered from dropped passes and revolving doors at head coach and offensive coordinator.  He had Oakland humming last year until his injury.  He still deserves a shot to lead an NFL passing attack.

14.  Josh Freeman, #14 in 2009 by Tampa Bay.

Although he took a step backward last year, I ‘d still rather develop him than hitch my franchise’s hopes on Matt Ryan.  Value-wise though, this is the right call.

15.  David Carr, #1 in 2002 by Houston.

Suffered from a horrific offensive line for years which led to many concussions and finally, Carr carrying a clipboard.  He deserved another chance and I’d still take a chance on him over some of my other options.

16.  Vince Young, #3 in 2006 by Tennessee.

Needed to demonstrate some maturity and didn’t.  By this point, I’m probably not drafting any of these players in the first round, except for Joey Harrington.  That one I was wrong on years ago and would still be wrong on now.

17.  Byron Leftwich, #7 in 2003 by Jacksonville.

His wind-up really cost him, but he led a good attack for a few years.  That can’t be said of Sanchez, Grossman, or Tebow.

18.  Rex Grossman, #22 in 2003 by Chicago.

The unfortunate opponent of Peyton Manning’s Colts in his only Super Bowl appearance, Grossman was one of the few relatively successful Spurrier quarterback products.

19.  Joey Harrington, #3 in 2002 by Detroit.

Again, this is the byproduct of circumstances as in the case with David Carr.  He gets a second chance before the Sanchize gets a first.

20.  Tim Tebow, #25 in 2010 by Denver.

He should n’t have been a first round pick, but his production in the playoffs was undeniable.  I ‘m not hitching up to the wagon, but he gets a chance to lead my franchise before Sanchez or Leinart does after what they have failed to show.

21.  Mark Sanchez, #5 in 2009 by New Jersey.

I expected better from him, but he’s seriously underperformed.  Otherwise, he’s not waiting for Tim Tebow to take over.  I don’t see how he comes in as high as #12 on their list.

22.  Kyle Boller, #19 in 2003 by Baltimore.

Like Tebow and Sanchez…he’s not deserving of a starting spot on an NFL roster.

23.  Patrick Ramsey, #32 in 2002 by Washington.

24.  Matt Leinart, #10 in 2006 by Arizona.

Should’ve come out of school a year earlier…and should’ve managed to grab the reigns from Kurt Warner…or stayed healthy for Houston.  He’s pretty much out of chances now.

25.  Brady Quinn, #22 in 2007 by Cleveland.

I had no confidence in this pick at the time. 

26.  J.P. Losman, #22 in 2004 by Buffalo.

Yeah, he’s lucky that #27 flamed out or he’d have the ignominious position of last.  Instead it goes to…

27.  JaMarcus Russell, #1 in 2007 by Oakland.

At least he managed to get Lane Kiffen kicked out of the NFL and was the subject of some interesting defenses by Al Davis.  Immensely talented…but he totally wasted that chance.