Breakdown: predicting the final 53

It ‘s a wrap: final decisions for the 53-man roster (and practice squad) will be coming in shortly.  For armchair/Monday morning quarterbacks, this is when we all like to play GM and voice our pleasure/displeasure.  So, here ‘s one opinion; let ‘s hear yours.

Quarterbacks:

Joe Flacco #5, 5th; Tyrod Taylor #2, 2nd;

For my money Curtis Painter has n’t done enough to stay on as emergency QB.  I ‘m not comfortable with Taylor covering more than a two game stretch and would like to see a quality backup; but Painter is occupying a valuable spot.  Prediction: scan the veteran FA list for a pickup to bring to the practice squad

• We ‘ll be watching: to see how well Flacco executes the no-huddle throughout the season.  It ‘s had success in short stretches, but Flacco needs to recognize pressure early and continue honing his accuracy (the receivers have n’t done him much credit at points in the past few years ala T.J. Houshmandzadeh and Lee Evans)

Runningbacks:

Ray Rice #27, 5th; Vonta Leach #44, 9th; Bernard Pierce #30, R; Bobby Rainey #34, R;

Second year backs Damien Berry or Anthony Allen may latch onto the practice squad, but I can’t see releasing Rainey after his training camp and preseason showing.  Pierce knows how to lean for extra yards and Rainey is reminiscent of Rice when he gets the ball in space.  Neither is ready to carry the load long-term, but neither will let the defense rest when Rice is out either

• We ‘ll tune in: to see how Ray Rice pounds the rock after signing the contract and how often Leach comes in to execute his best impression of a sledgehammer (he ‘s been nice for an occasional dump-off pass when coverage rotates away as well).  Rice’s numbers might not hold steady this year, but the offense as a whole should move forward this year.

Wide receivers:

Anquan Boldin #81, 10th; Torrey Smith #82, 2nd; LaQuan Williams #15, 2nd; Jacoby Jones #12, 6th; Deonte Thompson #83, R; Tandon Doss #17, 2nd;

David Reed starts the season on the PUP and won’t make it out of the dog-house unless the team needs another returner [with Jacoby Jones, Deonte Thompson, and Asa Jackson this should n’t be a concern] due to injury.  Best of luck elsewhere, I had hoped he would develop in seasons past.  Logan Payne is another possession receiver on a team which generally struggles to get separation.  He might sneak onto the practice squad, unless Tommy Streeter (possible PUP candidate also) earns that spot.  There is n’t much upside for Payne at this point, so I can’t see them keeping a spot open

• We ‘ll have to note: the continued battle for the #3 spot and T. Smith’s improving route-running.  Both Smith and Thompson can blow the lid off a defense.  If Jones can hang onto the ball, there could be some nice highlights at the end of the year.  Doss gets one more year to develop but is buried at the year’s inception.

Tight Ends:

Dennis Pitta #88, 3rd; Ed Dickson #84, 3rd; Billy Bajema #86, 7th;

Dickson’s hands are less reliable than Pitta’s and we ‘ve seen a rapport growing with Joe.  Bajema should contribute near the goal line where the offensive line struggled to get a push in short yardage last year.

• We ‘re anticipating: another 1,200 yards and 7 touchdowns between Pitta and Dickson.  This time it ‘ll balance out to 60-40 in favor of the BYU product.

Offensive Linemen:

Michael Oher (RT) #74, 4th; Marshal Yanda (RG) #73, 6th; Matt Birk (C) #77, 15th; Bobbie Williams (LG) #63, 12th; Bryant McKinnie (LT) #78, 11th; Kelechi Osemele #72, R; Gino Gradkowski #66, R; Jah Reid #73, 2nd;

Justin Boren may stay on the practice squad in case of injury to Birk (with Gradkowski the understudy); Ramon Harewood has n’t done enough; Tony Wragge is an insurance policy at best; Jack Cornell’s versatility and first-team reps may lead the team to stow him on the practice squad.  For now, I expect the team would rather have K.O. and Gradkowski fill in for any injured starters.

• We ‘ll be curious: to see how the line does against the better lines; Cincinnati in particular has given this team fits.  It ‘s been nice to see better performances against Pittsburgh of late.  In the long term, it seems McKinnie is nearing the end of his tenure unless his play picks up and Bobbie Williams can’t be expected to be a long term solution.  However, in the short term I like the move.  Kelechi will see the field this year, but in the long term I ‘d prefer to see Reid and K.O. get a chance to man the tackle spots (or Oher improve his consistency and power).

Defensive linemen:

Haloti Ngata (DT – ‘1 technique’) #92, 7th; Ma’ake Kemoeatu (NT) #96, 10th; Art Jones III (DE – ‘5 technique’) #97, 3rd; Pernell McPhee (‘5 technique’) #90, 2nd; Terrence Cody (NT) #62, 3rd; Bryan Hall (‘3 technique’) #95, 1st, Ishmaa’ily Kitchen (NT) #67, R;

Ryan McBean is on the IR, opening the way for the rookie from Kent State, Kitchen, to join the rotation.  DeAngelo Tyson collected a fumble in the last preseason game and a sack the game before, but I ‘m not sure the team lets him see the field this year.

[for those interested, check out ProFootballFocus’ ‘defensive prototypes: defensive linemen’ if you want to disagree with how I understand the roles these players fill; I may misunderstand but this was the basis for my judgments]

• We ‘ll be curious: to see how Kemo integrates back into his old team (at his new weight); how Ngata holds up at a heavier weight; and how the eldest Jones brother rotates with McPhee.  Gotta love Pernell’s hustle, but there will be more effort required: last year there were stretches where Suggs and Suggs alone could reach the quarterback.  That trend has to change.  One further concern is how the line holds up against the no-huddle.  It did n’t look so good against the Pats last year in the playoffs.

Linebackers:

Paul Kruger (Strongside) #99, 4th; Ray Lewis (Mike) #52, 17th; Jameel McClain (Strongside Mike) #53, 5th; Albert McClellan (Will/’6-7 technique’) #50, 2nd; Terrell Suggs* ([PUP] Will/’6-7 technique’) #55, 10th; Brendon Ayanbadejo (Mike) #51, 10th; Courtney Upshaw (‘6-7 technique’) #91, R; Sergio Kindle (Strongside) #94, 2nd; Nigel Carr (Mike) [#42], R;

I have Ellerbe missing the final cut.  Ayanbadejo is too valuable to special teams to go elsewhere; McClellan earns the majority of snaps at Suggs’ spot but Upshaw will see plenty of the field.  The team needs a pass rush too much to let Kindle walk.  Nigel Carr has more upside for me than Ellerbe (who was caught out of position too often against the Pats).

• Wondering if: Jameel takes a step forward; McClellan performs at his more natural position; how Upshaw’s strength shows on the field and if he can diagnose plays quickly; if Kruger will ameliorate the loss of Jarret Johnson (true he set the edge at an elite level, but he was a liability against elite passers — especially Manning)

Defensive backs:

Lardarius Webb (CB – ‘Cover 1’) #21, 4th; Jimmy Smith (CB) #22, 2nd; Ed Reed (FS – ‘Cover 1’) #20, 11th; Bernard Pollard (SS – ‘Cover 1’) #31, 7th; Corey Graham (CB) #24, 6th; Cary Williams (CB) #29, 5th; Danny Gorrer (CB) #36, 3rd; Asa Jackson (CB) #25, R; Omar Brown (S) #45, R; Sean Considine (S) #37, 8th;

I ‘m expecting the team to stow Christian Thompson on the practice squad.  He has n’t showed, to my knowledge, anything for another team to be overly interested.  Cyhl Quarles also has n’t done enough.  Omar Brown, on the other hand, has consistently made plays and may have a future with this team or another.  Here’s hoping Considine does n’t have to see anything outside of special teams responsibilities.

For the corners, I was rooting for Chykie Brown to make the cut but it looks like Asa gets the nod as the rookie.  Our depth this year is excellent, or so it seems.

• Interested to see: the second year of Reed/Pollard teamed with Webb/Smith/Williams/Gorrer.  Stability is a good thing and Graham should add something in covering the slot.  I believe Williams has fallen behind the special teams ace because he struggles to find the ball.  Still, having two big corners (in Smith and Cary) is a luxury; which becomes a necessity against San Diego.
• Year two of Smith’s development will have growing pains, but he seems to give a big play and take one back.  Webb’s ball skills and Pollard’s toughness are beautiful to watch.

Specialists:

Justin Tucker (K) #6, R; Sam Koch (P) #4, 7th; Morgan Cox (LS) #46, 3rd

The big move has already gone through: Tucker unseated Cundiff (who now kicks a bit further south).  There ‘s not much to say, but let ‘s hope the Matt Stover comparison holds.

• Koch is an elite, though overshadowed, punter and Cox displayed his toughness in his rookie year.  Tucker exudes the confidence we never saw from Cundiff: even when he was successful there was an ominous feeling that things ‘didn’t go wrong this time’ instead of that sense we had when #3 was trotting out to tie the game or seal the victory.

Overall:

I ‘ve filled in 52 of 53 available roster spots.  I ‘m pulling for a veteran 3rd quarterback who can actually manage a six game stretch.  If not, that spot is likely going to another linemen or so as to keep either Chavis Williams or Dannell Ellerbe.  We ‘ll see who gets released; Newsome and co. often add one key player at this time.

Ravens – Chiefs Preseason Wk 2 Thoughts

Following the highlights available via NFL.com’s videos, some exciting things happened in this last game.

First Flacco was unrattled by the Chiefs’ pressure. It’s far too early to prognosticate, but it looks like Oher, Grubbs, Birk/Mattison (those injuries are accruing), Yanda, Reid are your starting crew. Let’s hope chemistry develops so that offensive balance keeps Flacco upright. We saw what happens when Rice can spring through the first line of tacklers again – reminds of watching him follow Lorenzo Neal. I like.

I also like Anthony Allen to secure the #3 role instead of Parmele. His speed might not match but his pad level is lower and this kid seems hungry. Parmele leans forward without bringing enough weight with it. I wish he would develop into a Chester Taylor, but people forget how tough Taylor was to bring to the turf.

Also I love Jimmy Smith’s physical play against Dwayne Bowe. Each catch was made difficult because Smith refused to back down. Picture who he has to match up with if he wants to start in the AFC North: Mike Wallace for Pittsburgh (any corner in the league needs help over the top against this guy, but not being intimidated or physically overwhelmed is big), Mohammed Massaquoi for Cleveland, and A.J. Green for Cincy (kid could turn into Andre Johnson 2). Not to mention I like Cary Williams pushing to start. While he might have ups and downs over 16 games, Williams doesn’t back down either and has the size to play a shorter Gary Baxter/Duane Starks hybrid to Smith’s very young Chris McAlister (and I think McAlister was unjustly treated by Harbaugh so that isn’t a negative off the field comparison). Williams was fooled on a slant at the goal line by Terrance Copper and those mistakes need to be ironed out. Still a promising performance.

Pernell McPhee – remember the name. As much as I want to see Art Jones win the starting job, McPhee will push for playing time and rotate with Jones and Redding. A pass rush has to come from somewhere.

LaQuan Williams may yet secure a spot on this roster & David Reed logged a few catches. Sadly I think Torrey Smith proves horrifically inconsistent, but learning from the likes of Lee Evans will prove beneficial in the long run. That’s what this is about – the long run.