Breakdown: predicting the final 53

It ‘s a wrap: final decisions for the 53-man roster (and practice squad) will be coming in shortly.  For armchair/Monday morning quarterbacks, this is when we all like to play GM and voice our pleasure/displeasure.  So, here ‘s one opinion; let ‘s hear yours.

Quarterbacks:

Joe Flacco #5, 5th; Tyrod Taylor #2, 2nd;

For my money Curtis Painter has n’t done enough to stay on as emergency QB.  I ‘m not comfortable with Taylor covering more than a two game stretch and would like to see a quality backup; but Painter is occupying a valuable spot.  Prediction: scan the veteran FA list for a pickup to bring to the practice squad

• We ‘ll be watching: to see how well Flacco executes the no-huddle throughout the season.  It ‘s had success in short stretches, but Flacco needs to recognize pressure early and continue honing his accuracy (the receivers have n’t done him much credit at points in the past few years ala T.J. Houshmandzadeh and Lee Evans)

Runningbacks:

Ray Rice #27, 5th; Vonta Leach #44, 9th; Bernard Pierce #30, R; Bobby Rainey #34, R;

Second year backs Damien Berry or Anthony Allen may latch onto the practice squad, but I can’t see releasing Rainey after his training camp and preseason showing.  Pierce knows how to lean for extra yards and Rainey is reminiscent of Rice when he gets the ball in space.  Neither is ready to carry the load long-term, but neither will let the defense rest when Rice is out either

• We ‘ll tune in: to see how Ray Rice pounds the rock after signing the contract and how often Leach comes in to execute his best impression of a sledgehammer (he ‘s been nice for an occasional dump-off pass when coverage rotates away as well).  Rice’s numbers might not hold steady this year, but the offense as a whole should move forward this year.

Wide receivers:

Anquan Boldin #81, 10th; Torrey Smith #82, 2nd; LaQuan Williams #15, 2nd; Jacoby Jones #12, 6th; Deonte Thompson #83, R; Tandon Doss #17, 2nd;

David Reed starts the season on the PUP and won’t make it out of the dog-house unless the team needs another returner [with Jacoby Jones, Deonte Thompson, and Asa Jackson this should n’t be a concern] due to injury.  Best of luck elsewhere, I had hoped he would develop in seasons past.  Logan Payne is another possession receiver on a team which generally struggles to get separation.  He might sneak onto the practice squad, unless Tommy Streeter (possible PUP candidate also) earns that spot.  There is n’t much upside for Payne at this point, so I can’t see them keeping a spot open

• We ‘ll have to note: the continued battle for the #3 spot and T. Smith’s improving route-running.  Both Smith and Thompson can blow the lid off a defense.  If Jones can hang onto the ball, there could be some nice highlights at the end of the year.  Doss gets one more year to develop but is buried at the year’s inception.

Tight Ends:

Dennis Pitta #88, 3rd; Ed Dickson #84, 3rd; Billy Bajema #86, 7th;

Dickson’s hands are less reliable than Pitta’s and we ‘ve seen a rapport growing with Joe.  Bajema should contribute near the goal line where the offensive line struggled to get a push in short yardage last year.

• We ‘re anticipating: another 1,200 yards and 7 touchdowns between Pitta and Dickson.  This time it ‘ll balance out to 60-40 in favor of the BYU product.

Offensive Linemen:

Michael Oher (RT) #74, 4th; Marshal Yanda (RG) #73, 6th; Matt Birk (C) #77, 15th; Bobbie Williams (LG) #63, 12th; Bryant McKinnie (LT) #78, 11th; Kelechi Osemele #72, R; Gino Gradkowski #66, R; Jah Reid #73, 2nd;

Justin Boren may stay on the practice squad in case of injury to Birk (with Gradkowski the understudy); Ramon Harewood has n’t done enough; Tony Wragge is an insurance policy at best; Jack Cornell’s versatility and first-team reps may lead the team to stow him on the practice squad.  For now, I expect the team would rather have K.O. and Gradkowski fill in for any injured starters.

• We ‘ll be curious: to see how the line does against the better lines; Cincinnati in particular has given this team fits.  It ‘s been nice to see better performances against Pittsburgh of late.  In the long term, it seems McKinnie is nearing the end of his tenure unless his play picks up and Bobbie Williams can’t be expected to be a long term solution.  However, in the short term I like the move.  Kelechi will see the field this year, but in the long term I ‘d prefer to see Reid and K.O. get a chance to man the tackle spots (or Oher improve his consistency and power).

Defensive linemen:

Haloti Ngata (DT – ‘1 technique’) #92, 7th; Ma’ake Kemoeatu (NT) #96, 10th; Art Jones III (DE – ‘5 technique’) #97, 3rd; Pernell McPhee (‘5 technique’) #90, 2nd; Terrence Cody (NT) #62, 3rd; Bryan Hall (‘3 technique’) #95, 1st, Ishmaa’ily Kitchen (NT) #67, R;

Ryan McBean is on the IR, opening the way for the rookie from Kent State, Kitchen, to join the rotation.  DeAngelo Tyson collected a fumble in the last preseason game and a sack the game before, but I ‘m not sure the team lets him see the field this year.

[for those interested, check out ProFootballFocus’ ‘defensive prototypes: defensive linemen’ if you want to disagree with how I understand the roles these players fill; I may misunderstand but this was the basis for my judgments]

• We ‘ll be curious: to see how Kemo integrates back into his old team (at his new weight); how Ngata holds up at a heavier weight; and how the eldest Jones brother rotates with McPhee.  Gotta love Pernell’s hustle, but there will be more effort required: last year there were stretches where Suggs and Suggs alone could reach the quarterback.  That trend has to change.  One further concern is how the line holds up against the no-huddle.  It did n’t look so good against the Pats last year in the playoffs.

Linebackers:

Paul Kruger (Strongside) #99, 4th; Ray Lewis (Mike) #52, 17th; Jameel McClain (Strongside Mike) #53, 5th; Albert McClellan (Will/’6-7 technique’) #50, 2nd; Terrell Suggs* ([PUP] Will/’6-7 technique’) #55, 10th; Brendon Ayanbadejo (Mike) #51, 10th; Courtney Upshaw (‘6-7 technique’) #91, R; Sergio Kindle (Strongside) #94, 2nd; Nigel Carr (Mike) [#42], R;

I have Ellerbe missing the final cut.  Ayanbadejo is too valuable to special teams to go elsewhere; McClellan earns the majority of snaps at Suggs’ spot but Upshaw will see plenty of the field.  The team needs a pass rush too much to let Kindle walk.  Nigel Carr has more upside for me than Ellerbe (who was caught out of position too often against the Pats).

• Wondering if: Jameel takes a step forward; McClellan performs at his more natural position; how Upshaw’s strength shows on the field and if he can diagnose plays quickly; if Kruger will ameliorate the loss of Jarret Johnson (true he set the edge at an elite level, but he was a liability against elite passers — especially Manning)

Defensive backs:

Lardarius Webb (CB – ‘Cover 1’) #21, 4th; Jimmy Smith (CB) #22, 2nd; Ed Reed (FS – ‘Cover 1’) #20, 11th; Bernard Pollard (SS – ‘Cover 1’) #31, 7th; Corey Graham (CB) #24, 6th; Cary Williams (CB) #29, 5th; Danny Gorrer (CB) #36, 3rd; Asa Jackson (CB) #25, R; Omar Brown (S) #45, R; Sean Considine (S) #37, 8th;

I ‘m expecting the team to stow Christian Thompson on the practice squad.  He has n’t showed, to my knowledge, anything for another team to be overly interested.  Cyhl Quarles also has n’t done enough.  Omar Brown, on the other hand, has consistently made plays and may have a future with this team or another.  Here’s hoping Considine does n’t have to see anything outside of special teams responsibilities.

For the corners, I was rooting for Chykie Brown to make the cut but it looks like Asa gets the nod as the rookie.  Our depth this year is excellent, or so it seems.

• Interested to see: the second year of Reed/Pollard teamed with Webb/Smith/Williams/Gorrer.  Stability is a good thing and Graham should add something in covering the slot.  I believe Williams has fallen behind the special teams ace because he struggles to find the ball.  Still, having two big corners (in Smith and Cary) is a luxury; which becomes a necessity against San Diego.
• Year two of Smith’s development will have growing pains, but he seems to give a big play and take one back.  Webb’s ball skills and Pollard’s toughness are beautiful to watch.

Specialists:

Justin Tucker (K) #6, R; Sam Koch (P) #4, 7th; Morgan Cox (LS) #46, 3rd

The big move has already gone through: Tucker unseated Cundiff (who now kicks a bit further south).  There ‘s not much to say, but let ‘s hope the Matt Stover comparison holds.

• Koch is an elite, though overshadowed, punter and Cox displayed his toughness in his rookie year.  Tucker exudes the confidence we never saw from Cundiff: even when he was successful there was an ominous feeling that things ‘didn’t go wrong this time’ instead of that sense we had when #3 was trotting out to tie the game or seal the victory.

Overall:

I ‘ve filled in 52 of 53 available roster spots.  I ‘m pulling for a veteran 3rd quarterback who can actually manage a six game stretch.  If not, that spot is likely going to another linemen or so as to keep either Chavis Williams or Dannell Ellerbe.  We ‘ll see who gets released; Newsome and co. often add one key player at this time.

Ravens Prospectus: Offensive Line

One area of considerable frustration in the last weeks of the regular season and which showed up against both Houston and New England was the manner in which the line of scrimmage was controlled, in both cases, by the opposing team.  While Vince Wilfork played an excellent game, it’s difficult for me to carry any conclusion other than that the Ravens should ‘ve been able to punch the ball in the near side of the end zone.  When strength went against strength, there was n’t enough push.  That ‘s either the result of poorly executing assignments, problems with play-calling, or give credit to the other team.  I ‘m going to wave off my own suggestions here because really the answer is related to all three.

So, let’s have a look at what the line may look like going into this year: (height/weight listings are as found on Baltimoreravens.com)

BRYANT MCKINNIE, 11th year out of Miami, 6’8 – 360

Likely relation to the team: Starting Left Tackle

Concerns: Can McKinnie keep his weight under control?  Last year he was cut by Minnesota due to concerns.  He managed to plug into the line shortly before the season even though he had to slim down from reportedly tipping the scales on the wrong side of 400 lbs.

Expectations: Reports are that he’s trying to cut down to 350 from 365 lbs, and that’s encouraging.  He provided an immediate impact in the series opener against Pittsburgh.  That push wasn’t so easy to find late in the season and may have been the result of Mount McKinnie wearing down.

I expect he’ll struggle with some speed rushers still, but unless he develops a nervous twitch ala Michael Oher, he’s solid enough to be Joe’s designated blind-side protector.  The upside is that he is coming into his second year in the system and has been at the training facility enough to stay near game shape.  That should allow whichever new player slides in at Left Guard the closest possible thing to a seemless transition.

*Against my view: ProFootball Focus rates McKinnie’s performance in the playoffs against Houston as #5 for Left Tackles in 2011.

MICHAEL OHER, 4th year out of Ole Miss, 6’4 – 315

Likely relation to the team: Starting Right Tackle

Concerns: Oher falls short of dominant play.  While he is athletic for a big man, he misses one too many assignments in the passing game (my perception) and does n’t maul 5 technique defensive ends or outside backers the way you ‘d like to see for a player whose worth is supposedly primarily in the run game.  That nervous tic has led to one too many false starts, much to the ire of fans.

Expectations: While Oher should benefit from a second straight year at his better position, away from the blind side, it seems he may lose out on the heir-apparent status to the coveted position on the left side.  Either Jah Reid, or possibly Osemele, may get a chance to replace McKinnie.  But that’s a story for another year.

For this year, Oher is the right tackle to beat and, unless Harbaugh falls in love both with both Reid AND Osemele during camp, he will remain entrenched.  My expectations are decidedly low as far as goal line push or consistency are concerned.  This is n’t what should be expected from the former steal of the first round, but it’s probably good enough for him to open the year as incumbent starter.

*Against my view: Oher’s performance, mostly against Darnell Dockett, against Arizona was rated #1 among Right Tackles in 2011 by ProFootball Focus.  At least they agree about the team’s performance against the Patriots front seven in which no Ravens lineman looked particularly good.

JAH REID, 2nd year out of UCF, 6’7 – 335

Likely relation to the team: Starting Left Guard

Concerns: While largely inexperienced at the position, it’s difficult to hear anything negative about last year’s 3rd round pick (85th overall).  Of course, he has n’t amassed enough game tape to have earned particularly negative marks either.

Expectations: Kelechi Osemele is the odds on favorite to make a run at the open guard spot, Jah Reid has a year’s experience on him and has displayed good work ethic.  In the interest of getting him onto the field, Reid may have to settle for the LG position until one of the tackle positions opens up.  It is n’t out of the question that Jah supplants either an underperforming McKinnie or Oher in season, but that scenario is highly unlikely coming out of camp barring injury.

At minimum, Reid will play as a tackle-eligible in goal-line packages should “K.O.” win the position outright.

KELECHI OSEMELE, rookie out of Iowa State, 6’5 – 333

Likely relation to the team: In the running for Starting Left Guard

Concerns: He looked a little stiff and slow off the snap in the little tape I managed to view against Oklahoma, but that was at Left Tackle, and K.O. will be asked to either produce at the Left Guard or Right Tackle positions in the coming years (as Yanda has that Right Guard position on lockdown).

Expectations: K.O. should intrigue fans in camp, and may even win the starting job, but the likelihood is that he serves as a rotational player and comes into 2013 ready to challenge for the starting Right Tackle spot.  Until then, he’s on my unofficial all-name team and a player to watch.

RAMON HAREWOOD, 3rd year out of Morehouse, 6’6 – 340

Likely relation to the team: Waiver player added to the someone’s Practice Squad

Concerns: There was some good press initially when Harewood was drafted in the 6th round.  Players with his body type will naturally get chances to stick around with a club, but it seems that that time is running out in Baltimore for Harewood, even if he holds onto a roster spot, which I ‘m doubtful of at this moment.

Expectations: Injuries to his knees have ended both of his seasons and at this point durability is a serious concern.  It seems unlikely that the team will hold onto an injury liability at tackle with the depth and versatility available with Jah Reid, Kelechi Osemele, and, in a pinch, Yanda.

MARSHAL YANDA, 6th year out of Iowa, 6’3 – 315

Likely relation to the team: Starting Right Guard

Concerns: While Yanda endured some nasty gashes mid-season, he displayed absurd grit and has only increased his reputation thereby.  He comes with some injury concerns, but the Ravens are expecting last year’s investment to keep paying off in the form of Baltimore’s best lineman.

Expectations: If the Ravens’ front fails to be physical at the end of the year, it won’t be because of Yanda.  I believe the Ravens made the right call in letting Grubbs walk while retaining the player who better fits their personality.

GINO GRADKOWSKI, rookie out of Delaware (transfer from W.Va), 6’3 – 300

Likely relation to the team: In camp given a chance to win the starting Left Guard position where Jah Reid and Kelechi Osemele are considered by most to be first in line

Concerns: Gradkowski may be too raw at this point to produce in the way the Ravens’ scouting department expects.

Expectations: Gradkowski should provide value after soaking up whatever knowledge Matt Birk passes along at the Center position.  Bruce Gradkowski’s younger brother likely will get his chance to make an impression in camp in 2013 and 2014 as positions within the line begin opening up.

MATT BIRK, 15th year out of Harvard, 6’4 – 310

Likely relation to the team: Starting Center

Concerns: Birk is effective in calling the interior assignments and as the follow up member of the double-team.  In terms of providing a push against nose guards, he’s not much help.  Cutting down a linebacker further afield is the more likely assignment.  Age is catching up to him, but he makes up for much of this with intelligence.  There’s of course a limit, and it seems Birk is nearing the wrong end of that curve on the graph where production swiftly fades.

Expectations: Barring injury, Birk will get the chance to play out this year, provide mentoring to Gradkowski, and continue to call the assignments at the line until he decidedly shows that the cost of having him play is n’t reaping enough benefit.  Until then, he provides a steady presence, but there aren’t going to be so many 3rd and 1 plunges up the middle (which is perhaps fine as Joe Flacco is rather awful at executing this play anyway).

JUSTIN BOREN, 1st year out of Ohio State (transfer from Michigan), 6’3 – 325

Likely relation to the team: Reserve Interior Offensive Lineman

Concerns: Boren managed to hang around the team last year on the practice squad and could eventually challenge for playing time at guard or center.

Expectations: I like having an extra Parade All-American on the team and Boren is the type of Undrafted Free Agent who sometimes pans out.  Given that the Ravens often don’t hang onto interior linemen (Ed Mulitalo was one of the exceptions and Yanda is proving to be as well) for so long, Boren may eventually get his shot.

While I don’t expect to see him in games this year, he might be active for a few if Gradkowski or Osemele need time to catch onto the playbook and should be a player of interest in preseason games.

CECIL NEWTON Jr., 1st year out of Tennessee State, 6’2 – 315

Likely relation to the team: Practice Squad or Released late in Training Camp

Expectations: I did n’t realize that buried deep in the dredges of the depth chart is Cam Newton’s older brother (have to imagine it’s difficult to watch your brother go #1 overall and win Rookie of the Year when you have to scrape to stay on the Practice Squad calling list, but of course thrilling to watch as well from a family standpoint).  There really aren’t any expectations here unless a few injuries add up.  Best of luck to the kid.

HOWARD BARBIERI, 1st year out of Rutgers, 6’5 – 300

Likely relation to the team: Practice Squad or Released during Training Camp

Expectations: Barbieri may be most recognizable during training camp and the preseason for his long hair (much as is the case with Jah Reid).  That is about all I ‘m expecting from the Texans’ practice squadder.  The other interesting note is that he was part of an offensive line which paved the way for Ray Rice’s production for the Scarlet Knights.

ANTOINE MCCLAIN, rookie out of Clemson, 6’5 – 329

Likely relation to the team: McClain might be able to latch onto a spot on the Practice Squad for this team

Expectations: While overall expectations are low, McClain is the type of player (and body) that a team tries to bring back to 2013’s training camp in hopes of seeing some maturation through practicing with the team throughout the year and studying the playbook.  Given his 54 games of collegiate experience, his body, and the intelligence he displayed in being named to the ACC Academic Honor Roll from 2010-11, he’s a player to watch in camp this year with an eye to next year.

JACK CORNELL, rookie out of Illinois, 6’6 – 315

Likely relation to the team: Early cut

Expectations: John Leslie Cornell Jr. is not expected to make the team, or be retained on this year’s practice squad.  If he leaves a good impression in the preseason games, he’ll solicit an invitation down the road from another team.  Best of luck to him.

ADDISON LAWRENCE, rookie out of Mississippi State, 6’4 – 300

Likely relation to the team: Early cut

Expectations: Carl Addison Lawrence has been part of some very physical rushing attacks with the Bulldogs in the forms of Anthony Dixon and Vick Ballard.  If Lawrence finds the right situation for another team, his physical presence might earn him a shot later.  If he’s to win a spot somewhere, he’ll have to carve out a niche quickly and show that he can pay dividends for the team that lets him develop.